Sizing up Western Michigan’s path back to the MAC title game

With a month left in the regular season and three games to play for Western Michigan, the Broncos have a good bit of control of their fate in the MAC. 

WMU is currently second in the MAC standings, one of two four-win teams in the league, but with a loss to Toledo and currently a spot behind 4-0 Ohio. 

The Broncos next play on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at Akron, and have two MACtion home games to follow, vs. Eastern Michigan and a finale vs. Miami (OH), on Nov. 17 and 24, respectively. 

Here’s a quick breakdown of the state of play in the MAC as it pertains to WMU’s path to return to Ford Field and defend its MAC championship from 2025, trying to be the first back-to-back champs in more than a decade. 

Current top of the MAC standings

Here’s how the top of the MAC shakes out right now

1. Ohio — 4-0 in MAC (6-2 overall)
2. Western Michigan — 4-1 (6-3
3. Buffalo — 3-1 (5-3)
4. Toledo — 3-1 (6-2)
5. Miami (OH) — 3-1 (5-3)
6. Eastern Michigan — 3-2 (4-5)
7. Ball State — 2-2 (3-5)

While Eastern Michigan and Ball State need help, they’re still unquestionably alive by virtue of just two conference losses, respectively. But a lot of other results need to break their ways. The teams with one or fewer losses have the inside track right now. 

And Western Michigan, with just the loss to Toledo, and Ohio and Toledo set to play in the season finale, has a pretty clear path to get to Ford Field at 7-1 in conference play. All the Broncos need to worry about is going 3-0 down the stretch and hope the not-too-complex other outcomes pan out. 

Notable head-to-head matchups

Here are the games already played, and to still be played, atop the league.

Already played:

• Oct. 3: Western Michigan 20, Buffalo 17 
• Oct. 10: Buffalo 23, Toledo 8
• Oct. 24: Toledo 45, Western Michigan 38

Still to be played:

• Nov. 3: Buffalo at Miami (OH)
• Nov. 10: Ohio at Miami (OH)
• Nov. 24: Miami (OH) at Western Michigan
• Nov. 27: Toledo at Ohio

This doesn’t include a few other games like Toledo and Ohio beating EMU, or EMU-WMU facing off still, among a few others. 

Notable common opponents atop league

This matters for tie-breaking purposes, and three teams in the bottom of the MAC standings will have played four of the current one-loss teams by the end of the season: Akron, Bowling Green and Central Michigan. 

Akron has already lost to Miami (OH) and will still face Ohio, WMU and Buffalo as three of its final four opponents through November. 

CMU saw itself take three-straight losses to contenders in October, falling at Ohio then vs. WMU and Miami (OH). 

And Bowling Green beat Miami (OH), lost to Buffalo and WMU, and still has to face Toledo. 

While the Chippewas have largely been flattened out as a potential tiebreak (but could be the Buffalo eliminator), Bowling Green could stiff arm Miami (OH) and potentially Toledo, if the Falcons pull off that rivalry win. Akron has some of the biggest potential to shape the tiebreaks for a non-contending team, with games still to play against Ohio, WMU and Buffalo. 

These common foes won’t be the end all, be all, but if a tiebreak comes down to records against common opponents, taking care of business against these aforementioned teams can go a long way. 

 Western Michigan’s potential paths back to Ford Field

The easiest place to start is going 3-0, Ohio finishes 8-0 in the league and beats Toledo in the finale. Then it’d be the Bobcats and Broncos duking it out at Ford Field.

In that scenario, Buffalo potentially being 7-1 doesn’t ding the Broncos, as the Broncos would hold head-to-head tiebreak over the Bulls. A 6-2 Toledo would finish a spot behind WMU and the head-to-head result would be irrelevant. 

There are other relatively straightforward paths along those lines, where other contenders take a second loss or the tiebreaks stack in WMU’s favor to face Ohio, Toledo, or perhaps one of Buffalo and Miami (OH) in Detroit. 

There are plenty of manholes to fall down, too, in terms of complex tiebreaks. Say Buffalo wins out, WMU wins out, and Toledo beats Ohio. That could leave four 7-1 teams atop the league with circular tiebreaks — Toledo > Ohio, Toledo > WMU, Buffalo > Toledo, WMU > Buffalo — but not every head-to-head played. 

That would be a situation thrown to whatever level of tiebreaks. There are situations where WMU can win out and things get thorny. 

But given the way the MAC has been this year, and the surprising results at points — Bowling Green over Miami (OH), Buffalo over Toledo — just getting to 7-1 and betting on the rest of the league to scuff itself up enough is a smart way for WMU to live these final few weeks.