Week 5 picks, preview: EMU at UMass for 1st place in MAC, UM plays for Little Brown Jug

It’s a lighter slate around the Mitten on Saturday, which means we should be ready for some surprisingly good games. Those weeks tend to sneak up. 

And while there’s no ranked-on-ranked (or teams ranked at all) among the five games being played by the FBS Michigan teams, there are some good matchups, from Michigan playing for the Little Brown Jug to Eastern Michigan facing off at UMass in a top-of-MAC showdown. 

Let’s dig in to some picks and previews. 

Michigan at Minnesota, noon, Fox, Huntington Bank Stadium

From a talent standpoint, Michigan is the better team. That’s easily been the case in three of Michigan’s first four games (and maybe all four, depending how one feels about Oklahoma). And Michigan conceivably, at 3-1, could be 1-3 with losses to Western Michigan and Oklahoma without a few key plays and the right breaks. This hasn’t been a team that’s played anywhere close to a level it’s capable of, or even really played a complete, complementary 60 minutes of football. The run game needs to get going, and the execution and game management in the key spells of the game needs to be better. 

And it all finally caught up with Michigan for a loss in a game it very much should’ve won vs. Iowa on Saturday. But ironically, having it finally rear its head and Michigan getting burned by touching the hot stove against the Hawkeyes guards the Wolverines against some continued sloppiness. It’s not just coaches talking to them about being more disciplined and detailed, but a result that went wrong because Michigan let it, that hangs over proceedings. Minnesota is a good team, with a quarterback who will end up with some sort of NFL future and another rugged PJ Fleck defense. There are some offensive line injuries and a lack of pop for the Gophers, who can make this a game — but Michigan for the first time all season plays something resembling a complete performance and gets the win. Little Brown Jug goes to Ann Arbor as the elaborate scheme to not go to small claims court continues.

Michigan 24, Minnesota 14

Michigan State at Wisconsin, 12:30 p.m., BTN, Camp Randall Stadium

There’s just not much reason to believe Michigan State can go on the road as a M.A.S.H. unit and win against a Wisconsin team that appears to have found a formula for success under Luke Fickell this year. Chief among the injuries for MSU is Jordan Hall, who is listed as doubtful after leaving the loss to Nebraska with an apparent leg/ankle injury. Hall, along with four cornerbacks, starting tailback Cam Edwards, and a spate of others are all banged up and unlikely to play Saturday — Edwards is out for the season. Plus, MSU’s offensive line has struggled of late. It’s been much of the same stuff that plagued the Spartans a year ago. 

What can mostly make it look better at least from the Nebraska game is Alessio Milivojevic finding some more success and avoiding sacks and turnovers. If he can deliver a gem of a game, MSU has a puncher’s chance on offense. But everywhere else, the Spartans are too hurt and would be minor underdogs, even if they weren’t so banged up. 

Wisconsin 35, Michigan State 10

Western Michigan at Buffalo, 1 p.m., ESPN+, Broadview Stadium

Buffalo has been without starting QB Elijah Holmes since the second half of a Week 2 game vs. FIU, and backup Jason Wright has fared poorly, completing fewer than 50 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions. It wasn’t much better when Holmes was in. This is all to say: Buffalo is challenged offensively. All six of Buffalo’s passing touchdowns this season have all gone to the same receiver, Chance Morrow. The defense might be OK and head coach Pete Lembo will always have his team ready to find an edge on special teams, but the overall picture is bleak for the Bulls.

So for Western Michigan, can this be a get-right conference opener? The Broncos have to go on the road, but it should be a useful laboratory to play some sustained good football in all three phases after getting beat up by Boise State. WMU will most definitely look to run the ball better and defend the run — while not letting Morrow get loose. Western Michigan is the better team and program, and Saturday can be a useful reminder of that after a downer a week ago. Don’t forget, this WMU team is a MAC contender. 

Western Michigan 34, Buffalo 17

Eastern Michigan at UMass, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+, McGuirk Alumni Stadium

A battle to stay atop the MAC standings comes from Amherst, Massachusetts, as we all predicted. But both these teams are 1-0 in the conference and will be set up well to make noise in the league with a win on Saturday. And while UMass has been the darling of this early season, turning a moribund program into a fun 4-0 outfit, there’s reason to believe EMU can spoil the party for a sold-out crowd. For one, UMass has an amazing quarterback in Pop Watson III, but the entire offense has boiled down to him making plays, often out of structure or with his legs. And where UMass has quietly shined is on defense, allowing 12.8 points per game and coming up with all sorts of havoc plays and a plus-10 turnover margin. 

But that’s all come against what’s been an incredibly soft schedule. Rutgers is bad, then UMass played two lower-level teams, then rolled up Sacramento State, which is likely to finish at the bottom of the MAC. While EMU’s 2-3 mark appears more suspect, there are two road losses to Big Ten teams that are (when healthy) better than Rutgers. Eastern Michigan will want this to be something of a grinder, even if both teams manage to score some. Something about this UMass ascension feels ready to burst, and EMU’s defense quietly could have the goods to slow down Watson more than any team the Minutemen have faced. Pair that with a steady, winning performance from the offense keyed by Noah Kim at quarterback, and EMU comes away with a statement win on Saturday. 

Eastern Michigan 33, UMass 28

Central Michigan vs. Akron, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+, Kelly/Shorts Stadium

The Chippewas — or at least head coach Matt Drinkall — badly want to win this MAC opener for that reason, but also because of how CMU flopped at Akron in 2025. There’s a personal desire to perform better. Here’s to guessing the Chippewas do, as few teams in college football seem to have better gone from “uh oh” vibes after Week 1 to feeling solid about things now. The passing game still needs to show up with consistency, but it’s evident it’s not a lost cause like it seemed it could be. And the rushing offense, especially with Angel Flores getting carries — he didn’t carry much vs. Miami to protect his health, naturally — should churn forward for CMU. 

This team has dealt with some defensive injuries, but the depth and ability to roll in waves on that side of the ball has suited this team well. Akron will present its own challenges, with dangerous running back Jordan Gant and a well-designed offensive scheme under head coach Joe Moorhead. But CMU should’ve played better and won this game a year ago, and feels like Saturday is a chance to play some inspired, winning football for a homecoming crowd. Plus, CMU should be able to run the ball on almost every MAC foe it faces, save for perhaps the very best in the league. 

Central Michigan 24, Akron 9